Epidemiology ikhoza kuwerengera matenda omwe afalikira
Nthawi zina matenda amafalikira ngati moto wamoto. Ena samatero. Matenda ena amangofa. Tidziwa bwanji kuti matendawa afalikira ndi chiyani?
Chabwino, pali mawu oti, R0, otchulidwa R "Naught". Tangoganizirani kalasi yoyamba yoyamba. Wina amabwera kusukulu akudwala.
Matenda a mwana wodwalayo amachititsa mwana wina. Mwana wachiwiri amatha kumupha mwana mmodzi; mwana wachitatu akhoza kupha wina.
Matenda ambiri akhoza kufalitsa matenda kudzera m'kalasi lonse.
Mu matenda opatsirana, izi ndi zomwe timatcha matenda oposa R0 a 1. Milandu iliyonse imabweretsa vuto limodzi.
Tanthauzo
R0 ndi nambala yoyamba yobereka. Limafotokozera kuti angati ana angadwala pamene mwana wodwala akulowa m'kalasi (anthu) ndipo ana onse amatha kudwala (amawoneka). Zimatengera onse pa matenda omwewo ndi kuyanjana kwa ana.
Pamene ma R0 ali apamwamba kuposa 1, ana ambiri ali ndi kachilomboka. A high R0 si matenda owopsa. Kuzizira kungakhale ndi R0; matenda osowa koma osafa angakhale otsika mtengo, osachepera 1.
Tsopano bwererani ku kalasi.
R0 <1
Tangoganizirani kuti, pafupipafupi, sikuti mwana aliyense ali ndi kachilombo ka mwana wina. Mwana woyamba amachiza kachiwiri; chachiwiri, chachitatu. Komabe, mwinamwake wachitatu samapatsira aliyense.
Matendawa amatha kufalikira.
Izi ndi zomwe zimachitika pamene R0 ndi osachepera 1.
Ana angadwale poyamba, koma matendawa amachoka.
R0> 1
Tiyeni tibwererenso kwa mwana woyamba, tayerekezerani kuti mwanayu ali ndi vuto lachiwiri, ana awiriwo amachititsa kuti aliyense akhale ndi HIV (2 onse pamodzi). Pafupifupi, 7 akhoza kutenga kachilomboka. Otsatira 4 amatha kupatsira 2 aliyense, zomwe zimayambitsa matenda opitirira 15. Posachedwa, padzakhala ana ambiri odwala.
Izi ndi zomwe zimachitika pamene R0 ndi 2 ndipo palibe mwana wodwalayo amene amakhala kunyumba.
Kulingalira
Mumoyo weniweni, si aliyense amene angathe kugwira kachilomboka. Ana ena akhoza katemera. Ena adwala ndipo sangadwale nthawi yomweyo. Ana ena adwala, amachira, ndipo ali ndi chitetezo chamthupi. Timanena kuti sikuti aliyense "amatengeka".
Pakuphulika kumeneku, "Njira Yabwino Yobereka" (R) imafotokoza matenda kufalikira. Ichi ndi chiwerengero cha ana omwe amadwala mu kalasi yomwe ili ndi kusakaniza kwa ana omwe sangadwale komanso ana omwe angathe. (R chiwerengerochi chimawonjezereka. R = R0x, pamene x ndi kachigawo kakang'ono kamene kamapezeka)
Chiwerengerochi chidzasintha panthawi ya chiwindi, monga ana ambiri amadwala ndikuchira kapena katemera. Kusakaniza kwa ana, odwala, komanso ana omwe adapezedwanso sikungakhale yunifolomu.
Ng'ombe Yopanda Chitetezo
Ngati mwana woyamba adalowa m'chipinda chodzaza ana omwe ali ndi chitetezo cha mthupi, matendawa sangafalikire. Ngati pafupifupi mwana aliyense anali atadwala kale ndipo analibe chitetezo, matendawa sakanatha kufalikira. Ngati ana asanu mwa anayi aliwonse adapezeka katemera, matendawa sangafalikire. Mwana wodwala sangagwirizane ndi ana awiri mwa ana khumi omwe angadwale.
Timatcha chitetezo cha mthupi. Izi zikutanthauza kuti, chitetezo cha ana ena chimateteza ana ena osakhala ndi chitetezo kuti asadwale.
Ndi kachigawo kakang'ono ka ana omwe ali ndi chitetezo choteteza thupi kotero kuti mwana aliyense amatenga mwana mmodzi yekha wodwala (pafupipafupi). Ngati mwana wina ali ndi chitetezo cha mthupi, matendawa sangafalikire.
Ngati R0 ndi yaikulu, chitetezo cha mthupi chimateteza kokha ngati ambiri ali ndi chitetezo. (Ng'ombe Yopanda Chitetezo pakhomo = 1 - 1 / R0) Akuluakulu a R0, ambiri amafunika katemera.
Ambiri opanga
Ana ena amafalitsa matenda ambiri kuposa ena - monga aphunzitsi odwala omwe amagwira ntchito ndi mwana aliyense. Kuphulika kungakhale kovuta kwambiri kuposa R0.
Zitsanzo Zenizeni za Moyo
Chimodzi mwa matenda opatsirana kwambiri ndi Mavitamini okhala ndi R0 pakati pa 12-18. Asanayambe katemera, mwana angapatsire ana khumi ndi anayi m'kalasi imodzi.
Ophunzirawo 15 omwe amatha kusukulu amatha kusokoneza anzanga 15 akusukulu. Masamba amafalikira mofulumira. Pofuna kupewa tiyeso kufalikira, 83-95% ayenera katemera.
Timawerengera R0 mwa kuwona momwe matendawa akufalikira mofulumira. Ebola's n R0 imapezeka 1.34, 1.86 kapena 1.6-2.0. Nkhumba inawonongedwa ndi R0 ya 3.5-6 yomwe inkafuna kuti 8 pa 10 azikhala ndi chitetezo. Pertussis (Akuphika Chotupa) ali ndi R0: 15-17 . Kuchotsedwa kwa TB ndi R0 = 10 pamene R0 ya Fulu imakhala pansi pa 2.
Tingathenso kulingalira R0 kuchokera kwa olankhulana. Mukalasi, kucheza kungakhale ana omwe akusewera mabokosi ndikuwombera m'manja, kufalitsa matenda. Phindu la R0 limadalira kukhudzana kumeneku. Zimadalira nthawi imene matenda amatha, ndi angati omwe amacheza ndi mwana ali ndi matenda, nthawi zambiri matenda amafalikira panthawi iliyonse.